Understanding and measuring ecological resilience: from whole communities to individual species

Ecological communities are frequently perturbed through both natural and human-driven impacts. In order to avoid the loss of biodiversity and of community functioning, it is crucial to properly understand and measure how communities will respond to such perturbations. Using a model-driven approach (Lotka-Volterra population dynamics model), my collaborators and I have shown that recovery from perturbations that affect species abundances and resistance to perturbations that affect model parameters can provide similar information about the resilience of a community (Medeiros et al 2021 Journal of Animal Ecology). These results contribute to our understanding of the connections between the different dimensions of ecological resilience. In another study, my collaborators and I have combined nonlinear dynamics and a data-driven approach (empirical dynamic modeling) to detect which species in a community are the most sensitive to perturbations on abundances when population dynamics are out of equilibrium (Medeiros et al 2021 Under review). Our approach allows us to measure ecological resilience directly from time series data and can complement traditional indicators of species vulnerability to perturbations.

Understanding changes in the species composition of ecological communities

A longstanding problem in community ecology is to understand whether some changes in species composition can be more likely and predictable than others. My collaborators and I have used a structural stability approach to show that species combinations that can tolerate a larger range of environmental conditions (i.e., larger range of model parameters) are more likely to be observed (Medeiros et al 2021 The American Naturalist). These results provide an explanation of why certain combinations of interacting species are observed very often in nature. We have also merged the structural stability approach with ideas from statistical mechanics to perform accurate forecasts of which species are more likely to persist under uncertainty of environmental conditions and species composition (Saavedra et al 2020 Ecology Letters).

Understanding how coevolution operates in networks of interacting species

Although coevolution between pairs of interacting species has been studied for decades, only recently we have started to investigate how coevolution shapes species traits in networks with multiple interacting species. I explored this problem in my Master’s research by merging concepts from the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution and a trait evolution model. Using this model and information on several empirical mutualistic networks, my collaborators and I have shown that gene flow has the potential to increase trait matching between interacting species (Medeiros et al 2018 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences).